There are still no confirmation from Beijing of the statement made by the US President Donald Trump following his talks in China, that the Chinese president Xi Jinping agreed to buy more American oil and LPG. There were reports that two LPG carriers have already have already started for China. If it is true, then China have recommenced purchasing the LNG from the US, which was driven from Chinese market after Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Chinese goods.
China was never a significant importer of the American LNG, and LNG is not a matter of primary importance in the Trump’s strategy. He wants American oil industry to attract huge investments, which will allow to construct all the necessary infrastructure for a rapid increase of export.
The expansion of American oil (and oil under direct American control like in Guyana or Venezuela) will guarantee global energy domination of the US, which is to be supported by diplomatic pressure and, if necessary military actions. But turn this plan into reality, it is necessary to ensure access for the American oil to Chinese and European markets, in order to make prospective investors in export infrastructure on the both American coasts that they will not lose their money. It seems that Xi Jinping refused to make any promises, regardless of all Trump’s aspirations. And because of his failure to establish control over the Strait of Hormuz, the American president was not able to influence Beijing decisions concerning oil exports.
China also has not rushed into getting Trump out of a trap, into which he fell because of his confidence that he would be able to prevent Iran from blocking the Hormuz strait. Contrary to his expectations, the US president could not establish control over this important route, which damaged all his international strategy.
Continuation of Iran’s blockade is going to undermine the US global standing. And Trump will have to run the high reputational risk, if he recommences the war that cannot be won in a short time (and in addition became completely useless to him).
The US president indicated that he did not ask Xi Jinping for an assistance in putting pressure on Iran, though both the US and China agreed that the Hormuz strait should be reopened for energy transportation. But Iran does not want to make an agreement on American conditions, and the Hormuz strait remains blocked. Trump wrote at his Truth Social account on May 18, that he ordered to suspend US military attacks on Iran, which had been already scheduled under the request of the rulers of the Gulf Arab states. Their desire to stop hostilities is understandable. The infrastructure for oil and LNG export will suffer further damage, if the conflict between the US and Iran is restarted. Due to political reasons, Trump has to protect the export of the Arab oil, he will certainly try take under control its delivery to Europe.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on May 13 gave an interview, before leaving for the BRIC’s foreing ministers meeting in New Delhi, which coincided with Donald Trump’s visit to China. Lavrov complained that Trump’s approach to Russia, in contradiction with his words, follows the pattern set by former US President Joseph Biden. Moreover, Trump wants to impose additional restrictions on Russian oil export, because he wants the United States to dominate global energy markets. So the US administration are making efforts to push out Lukoil and Rosneft (two Russian largest oil exporters) “from the global markets, including Africa and the Balkan markets, where our companies operated successfully”. The US goal in Europe is “to bring every significant energy supply route under American control”.
There is one question: why Russian president Vladimir Putin, who spent so much efforts and financial resources, fighting for energy domination over Europe, is doing nothing to prevent American expansion? One of the main reasons of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, besides maintaining control over the post-soviet space, was the intention to remove all the obstacles for hydrocarbon exports, first of all, to eliminate the ground for the sanctions imposed after the annexation of the Crimea. That plan failed. The sanctions remained, because Ukraine has preserved its independence and did not agree to recognize the Crimea and Donbas as the Russian territory in exchange for peace. Moreover, much severe sanctions were imposed on Russian economy both by the EU governments and the US administrations, including the incumbent one. Bit there still was a hope that after the end of hostilities, Russian oil and gas will be eventually allowed to return to the European market. But if the US will take European energy supply routes under control, the opportunity to bring Russian hydrocarbons back to Europe will disappear. Furthermore, their presence on the European market can be diminished, even comparing to the current situation.
The reason for Russian willingness to tolerate American expansion is a constant intensification of the conflict between the EU and Russia. It made irrelevant the goals related with the hydrocarbon exports to Europe. In light of increasing confrontation with the EU, the American control over the European energy supply might even seem to some degree desirable to the Kremlin. It gives a hope that if Moscow and Washington establish good relations, the EU can be made by the US to agree on some concessions to Russia in Ukraine.
Thirty-four EU members signed a joint pledge on May 15 to set up a special tribunal to prosecute Russian President Vladimir Putin for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. The tribunal will be headquartered in the Dutch city of The Hague, where the International Criminal Court is seated. The management committee, which will support functioning of the tribunal, was organized. It is going to approve the tribunal’s annual budget, adopt internal rules and elect judges and prosecutors. The EU endorsed the initiative, even though four of its member states, – Bulgaria, Hungary, Malta and Slovakia, – refused from participation.
The main task of the future tribunal is to put on trial the Russian president, the secretary of the Security Council, the prime minister and the foreign minister along with high-ranking military commanders. There will be no trials in absentia, the highest Russian government officials will be brought before the tribunal after they step down from their positions.
Frankly speaking, it is hard to imagine a better motivation for Putin to continue the war against Ukraine until he is recognized as a winner and remain in office regardless of what has to be done to suppress public opinion. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas stated that “just and lasting peace in Ukraine” cannot be established “without accountability for Russia and the perpetrators of the horrific crimes committed against the people of Ukraine”. It might be true, but achieving such a goal is going to take lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainian citizens and cause destruction of dozens of Ukrainian cities (in addition to others that have been already destroyed). Not speaking about thousands of Russian citizens, who will become victims of the Putin’s regime until it stays in power, and millions that will suffer from social unrest and economic chaos after its inevitable collapse in several years.
It seems to be better to put more economic pressure on the Kremlin, without scaring it too much, to make it end the hostilities. And after the truce is achieved, there will be an opportunity to undermine the positions of the Russian regime and prepare the grounds for a democratic transition in Russia.
The fact is that the EU needs Putin’s regime as a common enemy and if it vanishes, the common approach of the EU countries to the European security will become impossible. Unification in the face of common danger can be a very effective strategy. But it is not going to work this time, even if all the moral doubts it provokes are set aside.
Now after the US administration did not succeed in reaching its goals in China, it will concentrate its efforts on the establishing control over the European energy supply. Trump did not need any political support from the EU even before his failure in Iran. And now Trump does not actually need to pretend anymore that he respects economic sovereignty of the EU countries or takes into consideration the EU opinion.
Trump has to be paid his dues. He seems to be incapable of restricting his ambitions, but he can recognize that he lost an opportunity to fulfill them. He had to acknowledge that he was not able to undermine China’s positions and impose his will on Beijing. So he decided to avoid confrontation with China and deliberately destroyed the ground for it.
After his visit to China, the US president warned Taiwan against pursuing independence. He also stated in his interview with Fox News on May 15, that he neither “looking to have somebody go independent”, nor for “traveling 9500 miles to fight a war”.
Formally, the US position has not changed, because the US recognized Taiwan as a part of China since president Richard Nixon managed to make a pact with Chairman of Chinese communist party Mao Zedong. Moreover, the Kuomintang (the Chinese Nationalist party) that lost the civil war to the communists in 1949, but managed to keep Taiwan under its control, regarded the island as a territory that will be united with the mainland China.
However, in 2016 the Kuomintang was removed form power by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which considers Taiwan to be an independent state. The DPP would never dare to proclaim a formal independence, despite that this goal is established by the party program. But the administration of former American president Joseph Biden was seeking a pretext for enhancing tension in relations with China, but in contrast with the Trump’s administration wanted to avoid damaging global trade. The defense of Taiwan’s political sovereignty was a prefect for that purpose, and that made the DPP to feel more confident in its demands. There appeared a real danger that Taiwan would proclaim its independence, and the Chinese government would be compelled to invade the island to prevent its turning into formally independent state and the US would launch hostilities against China, defending the American ally. The Biden administration was not going to start a military conflict with China, but it was trying to use a possibility of it to form an anti-Chinese coalition purposed to restrain Chinese expansion in the Southeast Asia. Trump also used the threat of a military confrontation, but not for geopolitical goals (the coalition built by Biden almost ceased to exist), but for additional pressure on China, aimed to obtain economic concessions from Beijing.
While Trump was trying to reach his goals, he needed the EU as a political ally in order to prevent its cooperation with China. Now he needs neither the anti-Chinese coalition in Asia, nor the political loyalty from the EU. Now, his main goal is control over the European energy supply and in such a situation the EU intention to prolong the war in Ukraine and preserve Putin’s regime as a common enemy can impose a significant threat to the European stability.
The leading EU countries cannot comply with the American plan, because reliance on energy import controlled by the US can restrain European economic development. Russian political ambitions started growing rapidly, after the Kremlin decided that the EU is dependent upon Russian hydrocarbon export. The political costs of the US energy supply will be much higher. But Washington has proved recently that it can use opponents of the EU to overcome the European resistance to American control over energy infrastructure.
The “Monitor” has already written about the resignation of Hans Сhristian Friedrich Schmidt, who has been the EU High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina since August 2021. It was pointed out in the “Monitor”’s article to the role that Milorad Dodik, the former president of Republika Srpska played in Schmidt’s removal.
Schmidt was trying to block energy projects of investors close to the US Presiden in Bosnia and Herzegovina, including a gas pipeline from Croatia. It cab be doubted that these projects are of primary to the US administration. But it put a lot of effort into creating favorable conditions for their implementation. Milorad Dodik cannot be considered to be an influential international player, but he managed to increase his importance thanks to his support of the American plans. And now, when he proved his usefulness for the US administration, Dodik obtained more freedom for his political activity, which will be supported by the Kremlin. Dodik is just the first opponent of the EU, who could use for his benefit the US intentions to control the EU energy supply and Russian desire to undermine European stability. There are a lot of other comparatively small players in other regions of Europe, who will be able to follow his example. Those politicians who support the US expansion on the European energy market, can be exploited by the Kremlin in his confrontation with the EU, even if they do not share Putin’s views.
Donald Trump re-posted on May 17 the statement made by Greek minister of environment and energy Stavros Papastavrou, who said that the “trademark” of the American president is to use energy deals to advance American interests with both friends and rivals on the world stage. It should be noted, that Chinese strategy is based on the similar principle. Beijing strives to secure Chinese energy import and wants exporters to be dependent on their trade relations with China. Vladimir Putin during his visit to China on May 20 was promised that Russia would be allowed to gas export to China. Russia will rely even more on its energy export to China, because the Kremlin needs the revenues from it to finance the war.
The EU will not be able to defend effectively Europe’s energy independence, if it cannot find better ground for common policy than confrontation with the common enemy. The willingness to preserve the Putin’s regime as an external threat that helps unification can become dangerous to Europe. Especially, if Trump concentrates his efforts on obtaining control over the EU energy supply.
Dmitry GALKIN
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