Donald Trump aimed to preserve U.S. global leadership by increasing American control over global maritime trade routes. The failure of this strategy created an opportunity to undermine U.S. dominance in both world trade and the global political system. The BRICS summit, held in India on September 12 and 13, demonstrated that India and China had decided to set aside their rivalry and join forces to capitalize on this opportunity. They plan to enhance their global role by leading the Global South, which has become the primary engine of global economic growth

US president Donald Trump mentioned speaking to reporters on Sunday, that he asked Ukraine’s president Volodymir Zelensky to cease air-attacks on Russian refineries in order not to disrupt the production of diesel. At the US president explained, due to the damage inflicted by Ukrainian air-strikes, Russian diesel is not reaching the global market, and it is pushing prices higher. According to Trump, the world is hurt, because Russian plants are being hit by Ukraine.

The US president must be paid his dues, he managed to make an extremely funny a statement.  Ukraine had been trying to hit Russian refineries for three years, before it was provided with American satellite data and assistance of Palantir’s military AI systems for for planning and conducting the attacks this February. Before that the damage brought to Russian plants and infrastructure objects had been insignificant. In the recent months, oil production capacity of has been greatly diminished  (up to 40% on the peak, according to some assessments). Therefore, Trump did not have to ask Zelensky to stop attacks on Russian refineries. It was enough to order the CIA and high military command of the US to quit assisting Ukraine in this activity. In the end of July, Tucker Carlson rebuked Trump for failing to do it.

Zelensky ignored Trump’s request. However, even if Ukraine’s air-attacks on Russian oil industry had come to a halt. Because Russia severely restricted diesel export in July, only 20% of its previous volume is reaching the global market. Prices surged after the export flow of Russian diesel had been reduced. But its amount is so insignificant that the global prices cannot be affected by its further decrease. Everyone, who is following events, comprehends the actual reason for the new price-rise.  In September, Yemen Houthi movement gained important victories over coalition forces formed and supplied by Saudi Arabia. The port city of Mocha and several strategic islands in the Bab el-Mandeb strait were captured. As a result, Saudi Arabia, which is an important producer of diesel, lost its most important oil export corridor. And it seems that other Gulf states will either not be able to use the Bab el-Mandeb strait for their export operations at least in the near future. Therefore, Trump wanted to disguise the well-known factor of the price-surge. Because he was afraid to acknowledge it.

Donald Trump decided that the US should stop maintaining international coalitions, it had formed in previous decades, because it required significant economic concessions. He intended to preserve the US global leadership not through political and military alliances, but by increasing American control over the global sea trade routes. And the obvious failure of this strategy, gave an opportunity to undermine the US dominance both in the world trade and in the global political system.

The BRICS Summit, which was held in India on September 12-13, showed that India and China decided two cease their rivalry and unite their efforts in order to seize the chance. They are planning to increase the global role by leading Global South, which has become the main driver of the global economic growth.

Of course, both states were having such plans for quite a long time, but now the made significant steps to this goal. It was openly proclaimed at the summit that the BRICS is going to unite the Global South and provide it with means both for economic development and increasing its role in the global governance. There can be no political alliance between India and China, because their interests are too different. But they demonstrated the desire and ability to coordinate their efforts. And it has indicates a great change in their foreign policy, which has been marked for their mutual confrontation in the last six years.

The motto of the summit was “Building Resilience and Innovation for Cooperation and Sustainability”.  And prime-minister of India Narendra Modi explained that these words are to redefine BRICS (their first letters of these words make in English the same abbreviation as the name of the organization). Modi stressed that the concerns of BRICS will be placed on the Global South, which will be supported by the organization in the upcoming global disturbance.

President of China Xi Jinping in his speech stated that the Global South is on the rise, but at the same time, it faces “risks and challenges”, because of the unstable international landscape. BRICS intends “to bring stability to the world and make it a better place”. It is ready to “seize the historical initiative”, unite the Global South, help him in increasing its influence on international affairs, and in advancing the well-being of all humanity.

According to Xi Jinping, BRICS is starting a new page in its history. Before that, it has has been winning its reputation on the global stage and working out its own approach to the global affairs, which is based on intention  “to take everyone along”. Now, the unity and consensus established inside BRICS are going to be used for transformation of the global governance and economic system. “For the next twenty years, we must work on a new and ambitious agenda”, said the Chinese president. Accorfing to him, the world needs new international rules in order to avoid chaos. And they must be written by all countries, and the Global South countries should join their efforts to defend the rule of law in international affairs and get rid of double standards in international relations.

The world will have to overcome dangerous challenges in the near future, and it is important not just fight the symptoms, but deal with the root causes of the global problems. Global South countries should jointly improve global governance and find the way toward shared prosperity.

There two mutually supplemented approaches for the unification of the Global South proposed by India and China. Narendra Modi wants to enhance cooperation, Xi Jinping offers economic and political support in achieving common goals related with improving global governance and reaching prosperity. Against this background, it can be noticed that Russian president Vladimir Putin was not invited to take an active part in the unification efforts. Hes speech at the summit was focused on turning BRICS into one of the main centers of the multi-polar world. It is certainly far less ambitious than plans revealed by Indian and Chinese leaders. And it is obviously incompatible with their desire to use BRICS capabilities for unification of the whole Global South.

The video with Putin’s speech at the summit has become viral on the internet, thanks to National Security Advisor of India Ajit Doval who was sitting behind the Russian president and constantly eating snacks, while he was speaking. Ajit Doval, who is a strong supported of the idea of unification of the Global South under India’s leadership, can be excused. He was not expecting to hear anything interesting from Putin.

The approaches of India and China might be based on their good intentions, but they certainly correspond with national interests. India needs cheap fuel and mineral resources, it needs to find new markets to increase export and diminish trade deficit. Therefore, Delhi regards cooperation in economic development and creating transport infrastructure as a base for the unification.

Beijing has nothing against it. But Chinese economic challenges are much complicated, and its problems cannot be enhanced just by enhancing of export. China has been suffering from enormous trade surplus, which has already reached 710 billion euros in the first eight months of 2026. It means that the last year record of 1,035 billion euros can be exceeded. It means that Chinese corporations export too much and Chinese citizens consume too little. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping was trying to achieve economic growth grounded on internal consumption. It was expected to provide investments for rapid developing of the Chinese industry It seems that this strategy is not working, and it is necessary to find another source of investments, and the Global South can deliver them, if it will become dependent not only on Chinese goods, but also on Chinese technologies.

The US also needs to make as many countries as possible dependent on its technological achievements, if it wants to preserve the global leadership. The easiest way to achieve it is to use the advantages in developing AI systems for making other countries reliable on them. Both the US and China are focused now on spreading their AI technologies.

This theme was given a lot of attention in the Xi Jinping’s speech. He promised that China will become a pioneer in establishing a BRICS AI open source community. China is going to build an open ecosystem for AI and assist the Global South countries in developing and applying large language models. Most of them have no chance to accomplish it with their own efforts.

Of course, it will be a great help, but the Chinese partners in this sphere will inevitably become dependent on China. The US administration is trying to solve the same task, but by other means. Washington wants to impose obligations on governments interested in adopting American AI technologies for public-sector use, preventing them from breaking ties with American corporations.

The battle between the US and China is for AI supremacy seems to be not less important as the arms race between the USSR and the US during the “cold war”. The US and China account for 90 per cent of the world’s frontier computing power. So the winner of the the AI race will gain an unassailable technological lead. That’s why China so desperately needs to unite the Global South. It will help spreading Chinese affordable models. There is little doubt that can make them attractive and effective. The Chinese government has been constantly increasing its spending on research and development and it has already surpassed the US in this aspect. Chinese scholars published as many papers as American, British, German, and Japanese researchers combined in 2025.

India can only win from China-U.S. competition over technological influence and it is interested in its prolongation. But in the end there has to be a winner. If China and India manage to unite the Global South, China will get a good chance for success. But after its is achieved, it will not need a partner in leading the united Global South any more.

Dmitry GALKIN

Ukraine’s High Anti-Corruption Court on August 25, decided to suspend pre-trial detention of Oleksiy Stupak the Chairman of the state-owned Sense Bank due to his poor health. A day earlier, Iryna Mudra, the deputy head of president’s office arrested under the same investigation conducted by the National Anti-corruption bureau of Ukraine (NABU) was left in custody until bail of 20 million hryvnias (390 000 euros) is paid. The comparatively low amount of the bail for Mudra and the consideration of Stupak’s health condition were interpreted by many Ukrainian journalists as a sign that they both agreed to cooperate with the NABU. And there are good reasons to believe it.

Stupak, Mudra and several other civil servants and entrepreneurs were accused in laundering money collected to pay the bail for Herman Halutshchenko, who served first as the Minister of Energy and then the Minister of Justice. He was detained on February 15, and the bail for him is 150 million hryvnias (2,9 million euros). Because all money that belonged to Halutshchenko and his family was frozen the NABU started a new operation in order to find out how the money would be collected.

The phones of those who can be involved in the releasing Halutshchenko out of jail were wiretapped, and the NABU has already published some of the intercepted conversation. The NABU called this operation Forest Gump. The most popular explanation of such a name is that it was used for Halutshchenko by one of this participants of laundering scheme. Talking about the difficulties caused by the freezing of  assets belonged to Halutshchenko, he said that only mentally retarded person could set up a trust for some of family expenses and transfer in it the money gained from corruption schemes. So laundering the money for his bail should be called “saving Forest Gump”.

However, influential political journalist Juriy Vishnevsky suggested that the name of the main character of the famous movie was used by the NABU not to mock at the former minister. He paid attention that the phrase “Run, Forest, run” is remembered by everyone who saw the movie, and comes to mind first when it is recalled. In that case, the message is clear. The person, who is  meant to be the target of the message, is advised by the NABU to leave his position. Mudra in her conversations with other participants repeated a few times that her superiors make her hurry up with  Halutshchenko’s release. There were only two people higher in rank than Mudra the president’s office. Head of the office Kyrylo Budanov and the President of Ukraine Volodymir Zelensky. It seems highly unlikely that the NABU wanted to send any message to Budanov. And there can be little doubts, that he NABU would not start such a communication without approval (or even request) of its American partners.

Mudra was arrested on August 19, on charges of  the legalization of the cash, which was brought at her disposal to be used as a bail for Halutshchenko. The main problem was that the bail could not be paid with the money of doubtful source. So they had to be transferred from account to account until their origin could be considered completely trustworthy. The bail was paid on June 29 and Halutshchenko was released thanks to the money-laundering operation carried out by the state owned bank. Moreover, when Mudra mentioned in her conversations with the top managers of the bank the possible problems with the State financial monitoring service, she was promised that all the problems would be settled. It turned out to be true. The agency did not terminated or suspended any of the transfers, though most of them should have been regarded as extremely suspicious.

It turned out after her arrest, that Iryna Mudra is much wealthier than her legal income allowed. More than 6 million euros were found on her deposits and accounts in Ukraine and Israel. She also came to be an active investor in the construction projects and bought shares of Microsoft. She owns five expensive apartments in Kyiv, which are partially registered for her 73-year-old mother. If the two Mudra’s superiors knew nothing about that, they both should be considered dangerously incompetent.

There is no mystery in the source of Mudra’s wealth. When she was arrested at 7 in the morning, scandalously known developer and former Member of Parliament Maksym Mykytas was found present in her apartment. He has been also put in custody with comparatively law bail, just 580 thousand euros.

Mykytas has become the suspect in several anti-corruption investigation since 2019 and three of them (not counting Forest Gump operations) are still going on. He had to stay in custody for quite a long time in recent years and his former partners swindle out of his business. Mykytas came for protection to Vadym Stolar, an acting member of parliament and one of the biggest Ukraine’s developers, who prefers to live abroad. In last years of the rule of Victor Yanukovych, Stolar was considered to be a mediator between the president’s close circle and developers, who had construction projects in Kyiv, It seems that Stolar has not lost his influence, because he helped Mykytas to regain control over construction companies and sites he had owned. Mudra, as it can be concluded from the published records, has actively participated in the restoration of Mykytas’ property rights. In accordance with her last name, she gave him useful advises how to influence judges and acted on his behalf in the ministry of justice. Once, they even has a quarrel, because Mykytas did not warn her that he fabricated some of the court decisions.

It should be noted, that in the president’s office Mudra was responsible among other things for the justice reform.

But the most interesting question is why Mudra and Mykytas became involved in the scheme of laundering money for Halutshchenko’s bail. It was not related with their business interests. The only possible reason is that Mudra was compelled to do it. And here the most interesting part starts.

Halutshchenko’s arrest was one of the outcomes of  “Operation Midas”, executed by the NABU in 2025. But he was not the main target of the investigation. It was directed against Timur Mindich, a former friend and a business partner of Volodymir Zelensky, – Mindic was a co-owner of a production company, which made movies and comedy shows with the future president of Ukraine. During the war,  Mindich became the key figure in the illegal scheme of electric energy distribution. Thanks to the constant deficit, caused by Russian air-strikes, some companies were eager to pay huge bribes for the uninterrupted delivery of electricity. And the former producer managed to provide it through nuclear power plants (all of them are state-owned in Ukraine).

Timur Mindich and his friend Oleksandr Zukerman were supposed to be arrested under the warrant issued by the NABU and Specialized Anti-corruption Prosecutor’s office (SAPO) on November 10, 2025. However, both managed to leave the country on that day without being stopped at the border. It was also also found out that the some of the revenues from illegal energy distribution were utilized for the construction of elite estates. And Andriy Yermak, who served as the head of the president’s office, has been suspected in supervising this activity.

On November 28, 2025 Yermak was dismissed from his position. On May 14, 2026 he was  detained, but he was released on bail of 140 million hryvnias (2.7 million euros). He lost part of his influence recently, but preserved some of his people both in the president’s office and in the government, even after its recent reshuffle. Mudra is considered to be a trusted associate of Yermak, who seemingly had no connections with Mindic. However, Mudra carried out directions of Mindic.

It has not been proved that the money for Halutshchenko’s bail was provided by Mindic, though it is suspected. But it can be concluded from Mudra’s phone conversations that Mindic asked her to prevent the Sense Bank from falling under control of “David”. It is obvious that she meant David Arakhamia, the head of the ruling parliament faction. It can be comprehended that the Sense Bank has been washing out money from online gambling. And “David” wanted to get a share of it.

Mudra used her connections to make David’s people to behave like “cute kittens”. So the peace between the different groups in the Ukraine’s ruling establishment remained undisturbed. It can be observed that the political system created by Zelensky and his associates function without any serious problems. As it can be concluded from conversations of Mudra, the president’s office controls civil courts and top-level bureaucracy. And Arakhamia can deliver desired results of voting in the parliament thanks to his informal interactions and deals with some of the opposition groups, including former pro-Russian opposition. Serious obstacles for the smooth functioning are created by the NABU and SAPO. And Mudra discussed the ways to remove head of SAPO Oleksandr Klymenko. Last year, the president’s office made an attempt to deprive the NABU and SAPO of their independence, but was stopped by the US administration and suffered a public humiliation. The lesson seems to be learned, and the ant-corruption agencies continue to operate without restraint. They can cause difficulties and troubles for president’s associates, but they cannot change the system. It can be achieved only through elections.

On August 18, former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has called in his address to Ukrainians for a search for a legal and safe mechanism that would allow the electoral process to resume in Ukraine, even if the war with Russia continues for several more years. Fedorov stated that corruption remained widespread under Zelenskyy and it should be regarded as a symptom of the deep  crisis of governance. On the next day, Mudra was arrested.

Zelensky suggested that Fedorov could have been pushed to call for elections by external forces. The former minister denied this. But his plans to visit the US in the near future and raise there capital for drone production deserve attention. Meanwhile, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who is considered one of the most ardent Ukraine’s supporters among the close associates of president Donald Trump, unexpectedly arrived in Moscow, on August 25. The goal of his visit was not revealed. But the US administration strove to disclose the Ratcliffe’s trip to Russia. He traveled by a U.S. Air Force Boeing C-17A Globemaster III transport plane that naturally attention at a Moscow airport, as a U.S. diplomatic motorcade in the Moscow streets. Moreover, ahead of Ratcliffe’s trip, the U.S. told Ukraine that a senior delegation would be traveling to Moscow and asked it to suspend strikes until the delegation’s departure. It could be expected that Kyiv would spread information about such a request that proves that Washington has high estimation for Ukraine’s military capabilities. It can also be suggested that the US administration wanted to inform Zelensky that there are negotiations between the US and Russia on the matter that remains secret to him.

It can be a good way to inform a person, who like Forest Gump has some problems with comprehending reality, that situation is very serious. And it would be better for him not to fight against necessary changed. Even if it means that he will have to leave his post.

Dmitry GALKIN

The war, according to Trump’s expectations, was supposed to be over in a few days and bring American control over Iranian oil exports and influence over China. It increased China’s global influence, strengthened Iran’s international position, depleted US missile stockpiles, which indicates American strategic weakness. If Trump fails to perform a miracle and win a war that seems lost, this conflict could open a new chapter in world history. Not so favorable for the US

On August 10, British Chelsea women’s football club announced on its account on the social network Threads to include in their profile the comment to the post that would gain most likes. In several days, it became clear that the top comment is “Free Palestine”, which received 136 thousand likes. The club did not make the top comment part of its profile, as it had been promised. Instead, the comment was deleted alongside with the entire post.

On August 18, the Ministry of the Interior of the German federal land Hessen banned  the anti-Israel association “Palestine e.V.” It was accused of spreading antisemitic propaganda and its storage facilities were searched by the police.

These two events can be regarded as evidence that the support of Israel can create problems in such different European countries as Britain and Germany. It triggers confrontation between football club management and its fans, increase activity of radical groups, undermine public trust in political institutions. But neither Britain, nor leading EU countries can abandon support to Israel, because they have no real alternative to their traditional strategy. Though, the UK and the EU have moved toward a more critical approach to Israeli’s policy, they cannot condemn it and compel Israeli’s government to change it. The US administration has significantly less freedom in this aspect. It is much more engaged in the conflicts in the Middle East than any European country. Washington has been trying to establish control over the region using assistance of Tel Aviv. If Israel was strategically weakened, the American influence in one of the most important global regions would be irreversibly diminished. So the US administration cannot end the war with Iran, because one of the main Iranian condition is the termination of the hostilities on all fronts, including Gaza Strip. And Israeli government wants to keep at least part of Gaza under occupation under the pretext of threats to national security.

Officially, there is a ceasefire in Gaza, brokered by the US in October 2025. However, it has been violated by the both parts. But most important is that no agreement on permanent truce can be reached, until Israel preserves its military presence. And Israel has no intention to leave Gaza. Moreover, Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said in a podcast on August 16, that he considers all of Gaza to be a part of Israeli’s territory. Ben-Gvir is confident that Israeli troops should stay in Gaza and keep killing Palestinians, at least 30 or 40 per night. All who can pose a threat must be targeted, even if they are not militants, because  there are people in Gaza who don’t deserve to live.

Prime minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu needs an alliance with far-right parties. So he will not willingly remove Ben-Gvir and those who share his opinion from the government. Therefore, a peace agreement on Gaza Strip seems to be almost unreachable. However, US president Donald Trump is making efforts to achieve it. His son-in-law and the White House special envoy for peace Jared Kushner had direct talks on August 17, with Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya. Their meeting, which took place in Egypt, was also attended by representatives from the mediating states of Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. The US administration declined to comment on the results, but it became known that Hamas demanded the withdrawal of the Israeli army from parts of the Gaza Strip up to a designated line as a primary condition for its support of the American peace plan.  Netanyahu, who had a meeting with Kushner on the next day, must have insisted on the previous disarmament of  Hamas, as the Israeli prime minister had already done before. It was stated that no agreement had been reached. However, Kushner mentioned that the talks had been positive.

But even the most positive talks remain useless, if they do not lead to an agreement on truce. And without it, Tehran cannot come to terms with Washington. The US cannot abandon Israel. In the same way, Iran cannot fail Hamas.

However, it is not the only reason why the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which is now over, did not produce peace in sixty days term, as it had been expected. The war between the US and Iran keeps going on mainly due to Trump’s inability to acknowledge that he did not reach his goals. He obviously misinterpreted the MOU. He seems to have believed that MOU gave him control over Iran’s oil export and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. It turned out that Tehran regarded the MOU as a list of mutual obligations, and is not going to make one-sided concessions just for the end of hostilities.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres on August 17, warned through his spokesperson: “There is no military solution to this conflict.” Trump cannot concede that it is true. So he keeps denying reality. He has declared that the US gained control over the Strait of Hormuz. However, it remains closed. There is some traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. But it hardly exceeds two vessels per day, while during peacetime the average number was around 140. Though the US managed to establish a blockade of the Iranian ports, Iran continues to fire on ships attempting to transit the strait. The Iranian government maintains its position that it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the US has fulfilled its obligations under the MOU, including providing 300 billion dollars in compensation and releasing frozen assets, worth 100 billion dollars.

Moreover, chief negotiator Iranian parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibafthe is insisting on withdrawal of US forces from the region.

The US administration cannot agree on that without making obvious the American failure. At the same time, Washington cannot force Tehran to change its position. Due to that, all attempts to conceal the defeat are falling to achieve this goal.

Meanwhile, Iran is taking advantage of the current situation to increase its influence in the region. On August 19, Ghalibaf arrived in Baghdad to discuss with Iraqi prime minister Ail al-Zaidi the Irainain assistance to his plans to bring Iraq’s armed factions under state control.

The forces of international coalition formed under the US leadership against the Islamic state are to be withdrawn from Iraq on September 30. The future of Iraqi state after foreign military withdrawal remains unclear. The government seems to be to weak to make armed factions give up weapons. Iran can provide very useful assistance. More than 90% of Iraq’s oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Now it depends on Iran, if the Iraqi government will be able to gain most part of export revenues.

Iran also continues negotiating with Oman, which is situated on the southern shore of the Strait of Hormuz. The Sultanate and the Islamic Republic can come to an agreement on how shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be regulated without participation of the US. If it happens, the defeat of the US cannot be concealed even from the Trump’s adherents. Such a prospect provoked a severe reaction of the US president. On August 17, Trump told Fox News “If Oman gets in our way, we’ll bomb them to bits”.

Trump’s threats against the US ally cannot be executed. Not because the international role of Oman, which  mediates in regional crises and is called the “Switzerland of the Middle East”. And not because China will greatly benefit from the conflict between the US and one of the Gulf countries. In the current circumstances, Trump has to restrict military activity. Otherwise, the Republican party will definitely lose the Midterm election due on November 3. The Iranian leadership comprehends that Trump cannot overcome restrictions, which are imposed by mass disapproval of the war among the American voters.  Political scientist Robert Pipe considers Trump to be caught in the “escalation trap”. Iran pushes him to further escalation of the conflict, because it is clear that he either will try to avoid it or will undermine his political position within the US.

The recommencement of extensive military operations will certainly end political dominance of  Trump not only on the national level, but also inside the Republican party. His polls are plummeting. But it seems to be even more important that more and more of the candidates, endorsed by him, are losing Republican primaries. Trump has already blamed his party for the possible outcome of the Midterm election, absolving himself in advance. But if he wants to preserve its influence and impact the choice of the next Republican presidential candidate, he has to appear successful at least in his foreign policy.

In order to disguise his failure Trump is turning war into a farce, making statements that have no practical sense, but can be appreciated by his supporters. Trump has promised to annex the Strait of Hormuz.  For the first time, he made such a declaration, speaking at a police academy on August 14. The strategically vital waterway, according to  Trump, would be “pretty soon” designated as a US territory, after the victory was secured. The Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi advised the US president to ‘indulging on delusions’ and accept the reality of defeat. Otherwise, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade”.

If promising American voters to capture the Strait of Hormuz, Trump wanted to conceal his defeat from the US public, he has obviously failed. A lot of military experts and commentators across the spectrum acknowledged that the US suffered a strategic defeat. A war that was supposed to end in days and was expected to bring the US control over Iranian oil export and leverage on China. It increased China’s global influence, strengthened Iran’s international position, depleted missile stockpile of the US, indicating American strategic weakness.

If Trump cannot work a miracle, and win the war that seems to be lost, this conflict can start a new chapter of the world history. Not so favorable to the US, as the current one.

Dmitry GALKIN