Aleksandar Vučić, the president of Serbia, wrote on his Instagram account on July 28, that Serbia is keeping pace with the world, that has been changing faster than ever, and must not stop. If moving forward means ensuring victory for the ruling party, regardless of mass discontent, then Aleksandar Vučić is perfectly correct.

Of course, the outcome of the parliamentary election is not certain, but the incumbent president has a great chance to become the future prime minister on the ground of its results, and keep staying in power without constraints of a term-limited presidency. On July 26, the Serbian President said that if his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) loses election, he will not leave Serbia. He also reconfirmed his intention to resign and announced that he had received death threats.

Such statements is a clear sign that  Vučić believes that everything is going well, and just a bit of drama is required to make his supporters more motivated. He would have never acknowledged an opportunity of defeat, if it had really threatened him. But he needs to be perceived by his adherents as a hero, who will keep on fighting for the country, whatever happens, regardless of any danger.

However, to circumvent successfully Serbia’s constitution and retain control over the country, Vučić needs not only to motivate voters, who remain loyal to him, but also to bring to his side those, who do not care much about politics, and demotivate those, who are likely to support opposition.

That is not an easy task. A large part of Serbians, who were neither involved in the mass protests, nor hold the president in high regard want Serbia to join the EU. It makes those voters potential supporters of opposition. In order to prevent opposition parties from receiving their votes, Vučić has to demonstrate that he will be able to facilitate the European integration for Serbia, when he becomes a head of the government.   

But there is the other part of the Serbian “silent majority”, which is afraid that the opposition leaders will betray national interests. Those people are scared that the increase of the European influence will undermine the national unity and restrict Serbia’s foreign policy. They have some reasons for that, because the EU bureaucracy do not take into consideration national sentiments in the EU candidate countries.        

If  Vučić becomes too pro-European, the voters who do not want to make too much concessions in exchange for the EU-membership, will become demotivated. They can stay home on the election day and some of then can even support the opposition because of its anti-corruption narratives.

There is a very popular tactical manoeuvre, aimed at showing the incumbent head of the state as the most balanced figure in the political space. He should be criticized by radical supporters of the  ideological concept, which brings him most of the voters, but prevents from him from expanding his support base. In case of Vucic, the concept that provides him with votes, but prevents the further growth in the number of voters is the resistance to the European political pressure in the name of national sovereignty and Serbian unity.

There are some rather well-known Serbian politicians and media-persons who will gladly slam  Vučić for conducting too pro-European foreign policy. Aleksandar Voulin, who was a deputy prime  minister in the government of Miloš Vučević has been already doing it for some time. For instance, on July 26, he gave an interview to one of the most popular anti-European Internet-platform DDGeopolitics. Voulin stated that the Serbian president does not deserve support of the political forces that fight against Brussels, because he is pushing Serbia towards the EU.

Both DDGeopolitics’ founders and Voulin does not hide their connections with the Russian government structures. But Vučić does not have to worry about the Kremlin’s reaction on the accusations against him, because he continues to demonstrate loyalty to Russia, at least on a symbolic level. Of course, Serbian voters  associate the name of the newly rebranded electoral list of SNS, “Ujedinjena Srbija” with the name of the nationalist party in Republika Srpska and the anti-communist opposition movement formed in 1990. However, in the Kremlin there will be only one association, with the name of the ruling party in Russia (it sounds similar in Russian translation). Thanks to that, the re-branding of the electoral list is certain to be perceived there as an homage to Russia, where parliamentary election campaign has already started. Maybe, the Russian government would prefer political actions to political symbols. But in the current situation the Kremlin has to appreciate any signs of loyalty, because it has been losing allies recently. Besides,  Vučić does not need active support from Russia, which can hinder the campaign and lead to defeat as the example of former Hungarian prime-minister Victor Orban showed. It will be enough, if the Kremlin just stays benevolent and refrains from active assistance. In the existing geopolitical landscape, the support of the US president Donald Trump looks much more effective. And Vucic has already obtained it.    

Donald Trump, who imposed tariffs, which was supposed to hit Serbia hardest in Balkans, agreed on their significant decrease. Aleksandar Vučić announced on July 24 that the United States had lifted 35% tariffs on imports from Serbia, and US tariffs on Serbian goods temporarily fell to zero and would be eventually settled at around 10% to 12%.. 

New US tariffs can attract foreign investors, who plan to manufacture goods for the US market, but it looks unlikely that “hundreds of millions of dollars” of new investment promised by Vučić will be brought to Serbia in a short time. It seems to be more important that the US administration made it possible to regard the US market as an alternative to Germany, which remains the main trade partner of Serbia.

Germany is facing an economic stagnation, and the Serbian export has already been affected by it. Serbian automotive parts, copper and metal products can be exported to the US, if the demand in Germany continues to fall. Besides, the US administration does not want to increase political pressure neither on Russia, nor in China. Therefore, Serbia will be able to maintain longstanding ties with these countries without  causing American discontent. Meanwhile, Germany is interested in the confrontation between Russia and Europe, because now it seems to be the only way to strengthen internal unity of the EU and enhance its geopolitical influence. The new agreement with Washington diminishes probability that Berlin uses economic leverages on Belgrade for changing its foreign policy.

It seems very likely that Donald Trump is trying to gain control over the Russian oil export. On July 28, the US senate voted overwhelmingly to advance a Russia sanctions bill that has been proposed by recently deceased senator Lindsey Graham quite a long time ago. It would never have happened without Trump’s approval. So it is expected to pass the House of Representatives without any difficulties. The bill hits Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers and imposes high tariffs on countries that import Russian oil. However, it grants the president broad waiver authority, and Trump will certainly use it for making exceptions for his allies. From that point of view, new sanctions against Russia can bring advantages to Serbia, if it can keep close ties with the US. Vučić can obtain an access to cheap Russian oil, while the leading EU countries will be deprived of it. In that case, Serbia can become a part of Trump’s strategy aimed at increasing Europe’s energy dependence on the US. So the US administration has strong reasons to assist Serbia’s accession to the EU, ignoring the political demands of the leading EU countries to the Serbian government.                 

It is remarkable that the decrease of the US tariffs was announced a week after Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Djuric and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had signed memorandums of understanding on energy cooperation. Trump’s waiver authority is the best guarantee that the NIS oil company will keep operating and even will become more profitable.

The political strategy of  Vučić grounded on the mixture of nationalist sentiments with the promises of economic growth thanks to the cooperation with the EU can become a tool of the American influence in Europe. If the Serbian economy is integrated into the EU economic space, but the Serbian government will be able to promote nationalist ideas, Belgrade can assist spreading of nationalism not only throughout the Balkans, but also in the EU countries. Strong political movements based on nationalist ideas are required to prevent the EU of obtaining internal unity and strategic autonomy. So the US administration is interested in helping Vučić to use pro-European expectations in order to dominate Serbian political space and weaken political opposition.

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš who describe himself as a “Trumpist” stated during his visit to Belgrade,  should not remain outside the Schengen area. Vučić expressing his «great gratitude» to Babis «for supporting Serbia on its European path» said, that the most important thing for Serbia in the coming years is to be part of the single market of Europe and to have open borders, both in the region and towards all EU member states.

No opposition leader could have promised more in the aspect of the European integration. Because thanks to the US desire to weaken and subjugate the EU, and the inability of the EU leaders to promote democratic values, the European integration ceased to be a path to political democracy.

Dmitry GALKIN

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy informed  Olexandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed forces on July 21, that he has been dismissed and replaced a high ranking commander of the General staff Mykhailo Drapaty. On July 22, it was announced that Chief of General staff Andrii Hnatov was also removed and his deputy Ihor Skybiuk succeeded him. This reshuffle of the high army command, which started on July 16, when the president dismissed former Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov. And it seems that the high-ranking officials, who were deprived of their positions, had not anticipated that.

Olexandr Syrskyi on July 20, when it became clear that the street actions in support of Mykhailo Fedorov will not fade away by themselves, published an article in the main military magazine of Ukraine. He explained that he had no conflict with Fedorov and was very astonished, when the defense minister mentioned their personal confrontation as the main cause of his dismissal. Syrskyi asked  Fedorov to excuse him for creating such an impression and assured him that all their conflicts were originated exclusively by the desire to fight better against Russia. Syrskyi also reproached the former defense minister for concentrating too much on drones and underestimating the importance of artillery systems and other traditional weapons. Syrskyi promised that as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed, he will keep on strengthening Ukraine’s military capacity.

On the next day, Olexandr Syrskyi lost that possibility. And on July 22, it was reported that  Syrskyi’s supporters mixed on the streets with demonstrators, who were demanding to  return Fedorov.

Such an alliance must look rather strange because contrary to what Syrskyi declared in his article, it was widely known that he had a conflict with Fedorov. Moreover,  their disagreement caused by their different approach to the development of military forces had started even before Fedorov became the minister of defense. As a first deputy prime minister in charge of development of digital technologies, Fedorov insisted on turning the drones into the main weapons of the war and rapidly increasing their production even the expense of other military supplies. Such suggestions were criticized by top military leaders,  but were not supported by Zelenskyy. And when in January 2026, Fedorov was appointed as minister of defense, it was thought that the main intention of  Zelenskyy was to use Fedorov for restraining Syrskyi’s influence or even for getting rid of Syrskyi, if the need would arise.

The president wants to be the most popular military leader and needs no rivals. In February 2024, he dismissed Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who was the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed forces then, because he had become dangerously popular.  Syrskyi, with his traditional military style, who replaced  Zaluzhnyi did not give grounds for the same worry, but he resisted interference in military issues and wanted to direct military supply. In case, if it became a serious problem for the president, Fedorov could easily create the basis for Syrskyi’s dismissal. Meanwhile, the conflict between Syrsky and Fedorov, made  Zelenskyy the final authority in all questions related both to the military supply and the strategy on the battlefield. 

The key mistake of Zelenskyy was that he did not foresee that  Fedorov would become so popular in such a short time. In January, the current situation could not be predicted, because the US president Donald Trump seemed to be interested in making an alliance with Russia. However, he lost such intentions. Maybe, he will have nothing against getting control over Russian oil and gas export, but he has no need to regard Russia as a probable geopolitical partner anymore. That’s why early in March, Ukraine was provided with the American space intelligence data and assistance of the AI military system for deep air strikes on industrial and infrastructure objects. A short time before than, Elon Musk switched off Starlink for all Russian users, which hindered drone operations behind the front-lines for the Russian forces. Besides, thanks to Fedorov’s concentration on drones, their number in the Ukrainian troops has rapidly increased, and Ukraine obtained a superiority in quantity and quality of drones, available for everyday basis. It helped to compensate Russian advantage in artillery systems and significantly slow down Russian offensive, even in Donbas region. 

All this made Fedorov, who is young (he is 35) and intelligent, extremely popular. Under the new new defense minister, the Ukrainians at last saw Russian refineries burning and important infrastructure object seriously damaged. Even Moscow and Petersburg were successfully attacked.  High casualties on the battlefield made Russian troops adopt new tactics, which exclude a rapid advancement. The apprehension that Russian troops could encircle such big cities as Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia are now in the past.

It is also important that Fedorov could touch public sentiments. The destruction of energy facilities in the Crimea, which was annexed by Russia with the support of a huge part of local population, and air-strikes on Moscow, though incomparable with what Kyiv has to endure in response, can give a feeling of revenge.

However, the most important achievement of Fedorov is that he gave the prospect of military victory over Russia. The Ukrainian society has been deprived of that since the autumn of 2022, when  Zaluzhnyi managed to breach Russian defense and liberate vast territories in Kharkiv region.

This time the victory was expected not through offense on the battlefield, but through air-strikes on the Crimea and Russian industry, which are supposed to inflict a great damage on Russian economy and make the life in the Crimea unbearable. Putin is expected to agree on immediate truce or even on surrendering some of the captured territories due to the heavy social repercussions of Ukrainian air attacks. Of course, such a plan will remain a fantasy without economic and political pressure from Washington on the Kremlin. And it cannot be guaranteed that Trump will put pressure on Russia, though he hinted several times on such opportunity. But even such expectations, even if they appear to be unrealistic is much better than war-weariness and despair which had been spreading in the Ukrainian society before this spring.

Besides, Fedorov has persuaded the Ukrainian public that thanks to the new drone, which are being  developed under his guidance, Ukrainian troops will get such a great advantage over Russian, that there will be no need to supply the Ukrainian army with new soldiers, at least in such quantity as at the present. The importance of this promise for young and middle age Ukrainian men, their wives and mothers cannot be overestimated. The series of these drones, which are supposed to change everything is called “Rusoriz” (“Russosec”). This name is greatly loved by the nationalists, who remain in the current conditions the most active independent political force.

Zelenskyy had to prevent the further growth of popularity of the former defense minister in order not to create a dangerous political rival. It is understood, the elections in Ukraine both parliamentary and presidential are inevitable, even if the hostilities continue. The EU needs the Ukrainian government to be legitimate in order to go on with Ukraine’s European integration. The new laws required for the elections in the current circumstances can be adopted only by the upcoming winter. So the elections can be conducted in the next spring. So has to act now if he wants to retain political domination and exclude the appearance of political leader, who can take from him his position or the parliamentary majority.

Such political behavior has nothing in common either with strengthening democratic institutions, or with establishing accountable governance. And it is a very bad sign that it accepted by the EU leaders who want Zelenskyy to stay in power, without any concern of Ukraine’s democracy.

The unwavering support of the EU and the lack of any attention to Ukraine’s political process from the US make  Zelenskyy believe that he can do whatever he wants to stay in power, because there are no political forces within the country, which can hinder him. Such an illusion destroyed Yanukovicn, and the political crisis that followed after his fall allowed Russia to annex the Crimea and instigate the military conflict on Donbas. Now, Zelenskyy is making the same mistake, and he has already disorganized military leadership by his actions, which can have dangerous repercussions.

Zelenskyy could not just dismiss the popular defense minister, whom he always supported and praised publicly. That is why it was decided to reboot the government. In that case, the president who would be able just not to suggest Fedorov as a new defense minister to the parliament. It seems that the president believed that Fedorov would be satisfied with the position, which would allow him to control the production of the drones and their supply to the army.

The former prime minister Yulia Svyridenko was not an important figure. Her main functions was to represent the interests of Andriy Yermak, the former head of the office of the president, who regardless of accusations in corruption, remains one of the most influential politicians in the country. Serhii Koretskyi, the new prime minister, is also connected with Yermak (though less closely that Svyridenko). So the closest ally of the president (at least in the recent past) got his compensation.

But everything the whole combination went wrong, because Fedorov publicly rejected the offer he had been supposed to accept. And the president, who wanted to create an illusion of an ordinary reshuffle of the government for enhancing its accountability, started to be regarded as an opponent of the former defense minister. Contrary to his wishes, Zelenskyy appeared to be an ally of the traditional styles army leaders in their struggle against Fedorov.

The president and his associates did not expect mass protests in support of Fedorov, and the reaction caused by his dismissal in social networks.  Zelenskyy realized that he is going to face a serious drop in ratings, instead of strengthening his political position. So he chose to remove Syrskyi and Hnatov, in order not be regarded as an ally of the main Fedorov’s enemies. It will inevitably undermines the moral of the troops, but it will hardly satisfy the protesters. The main question now is not the political fate of Fedorov, but the ability of Ukrainain society to resist authoritarian tendencies. Despite their acceptance by the EU.    

Dmitry GALKIN

Thanks to modern technologies that enable the construction of highways through mountains, the pattern of regional development has changed. Both in the distant mountainous countries of Asia and in Montenegro

Chinese embassy in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, organized on July 13 symposium to mark the 105^th anniversary of the Communist Party of China (CPC), and the event attracted high-ranking officials and influential members of Parliament, though the ruling Bangladesh nationalist party (BNP) does not share socialist ideas. Such intention of Bangladeshi political elite to pay tribute to the CPC is quite understandable, because early in July a new epoch in the relations between Bangladesh and China commenced. Dhaka has finally agreed on the Beijing’s proposal to take part in the construction of the China-Myanmar-Bangladesh Economic Corridor (CMBEC). It is going to be a strategic trade route, which will allow to bypass the Malacca Strait, managed by Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. China will obtain direct access to the Indian Ocean via Chittagong (the main port of  Bangladesh) and Mongla (the second-largest port of the country).

This project is extremely important for China, but Bangladesh did not venture to participate in it, even after the pro-Indian government of Sheikh Hasina was overthrown in 2024 after she had ruled the country for fifteen years. The new government, which was formed by the BNP cannot be cannot called “pro-Chinese” and it certainly wants to keep close ties with New Delhi, in spite of its agreement to assist Beijing’s strategy of encirclement India. There is an example that  Bangladesh wants to follow, the CMBEC is supposed to become the eastern twin to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). And that project, which offered Pakistan with new prospects for economic development and geopolitical influence, did not deprive Islamabad of strategic autonomy. Despite strong dependence on military and economic cooperation with China, Pakistan has been trying to restore its relations with the US, which dramatically deteriorated during the war in Afghanistan.

The Bangladeshi government simultaneously with acceptance of Chinese offer showed that it gives importance to the relations with the US. The US embassy was allowed to organize celebration of the 250^th anniversary of American independence on the premises of the National Parliament House, the largest legislative complex in the world. That decision was strongly criticized by some members of parliament with anti-American views. But it clearly proved that Dhaka is not going to change its approach to the relations with Washington.

It is remarkable that the the parliament complex in the Bangladeshi capital was designed by famous American architect Louis Kahn. His pupil Svetlana Kana Radevic became one of the most prominent architects of  Montenegro and former Yugoslavia.

But in the aspect of the infrastructure infrastructure development, Montenegro seems to be closer to Pakistan than to its rival Bangladesh (both countries are trying to mitigate the impact of the Bangladesh war of independence in 1971, but mutual trust has not been fully restored yet). Mountains obstructed Pakistan’s connections with the neighboring countries made it rely mostly on the marine trade routes.

That obstacle was surmounted only with the construction of the CPEC, which is linking China’s Xinjiang region to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port. It was launched in 2015, and the CPEC became one of the most important parts of  China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which China’s leader Xi Jinping considers to be essential for economic development and geopolitical influence of the country. Over 20 billion euros has been invested in the completed infrastructure and energy projects, related to the CPEC, and at least 34 billion euros has already been spent on the projects, which are still not finished.

The significance of the CPEC is primarily based on its ability to provide secure way straight through the mountains, fist from China to Pakistan, and this spring corridors from Pakistan to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were added. These new corridors provide Central Asian countries, with overland access to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan while bypassing Afghanistan, which is certain to remain insecure in the foreseeable future. Thanks to contemporary technologies which allow to build highways through the mountains, the pattern of regional development has changed. The most significant step in that direction was made in September 2015, when the construction of China-Pakistan Friendship Tunnels was finished. The distance covered by this project seems to be insignificant comparing with 3000 km of the CPEC. But without its completion, the significance of the whole CPEC had been diminished, because the passage from Pakistan to China would remain threatened by weather conditions, floods and landslides.

Construction of a 24-kilometer series of bridges and tunnels took 36 months and cost 240 million euros. The project, which included two large bridges, 78 culverts and five kilometers of tunnels, was executed by the state owned China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC). It proved that Chinese corporations obtained advantages in the mountain construction.

Thanks to improving trade routes with neighboring countries and its important role in the Chinese global infrastructure project, Pakistan became more interesting to other global players, first of all the US. Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi arrived on July 11 in Washington for a new round of discussions aimed at expanding bilateral economic cooperation, new opportunities for investment and commercial partnerships between the two countries. Mohsin Naqvi welcomed US investment in the mining and energy sectors and promised that American investors would be provided with the safe environment.

Pakistan was represented at the negotiations with the US by the interior minister through obvious necessity. Americans are mostly interested in acquiring rare earth metals, vital for electric vehicle motors and defense electronics, which were found primarily in Balochistan. Port Gwardar, which is considered to be one of the key elements of Chinese Belt and Road Initiative is also located in that province. And the situation in Balochistan is far from being peaceful. There are two main anti-government military organizations that operate in the province, – Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), a separatist movement that is thought to be supported by India, and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a fundamentalist group based on the same ideas as the Afghan Taliban. Despite their differences, they seem to coordinate their activity.

BLA carried out attacks on July 7, targeting police stations and coast guard camps, killing 11 soldiers and 18 police officers (skirmishes started two days earlier). TTP on July 6 assaulted the police post, which was guarding a dam, killing 8 police officers and abducting 18 others. But the most most damaging economic impact was caused by a suicide bomber on July 3, who drove an explosives-laden truck into a coast guard camp close to Gwadar port. Such attacks are the main cause, why the deep-water port, which was supposed to become “the Singapore of the Arabian Sea” cannot operate at full capacity.

Of course, Montenegro does not have the problems with militants attacking police or trying to destroy infrastructure. However, in the current circumstances Montenegro does not have a chance to become a part of the Chinese global infrastructure project, because neither the EU nor the US can allow that. China made an attempt to do that providing both the credit and the construction corporation for the highway from Podgorica to Kolasin. But even before the project was finished, it became clear that China would not be able to use it for the economic expansion and facilitation access to the European market. The Biden administration that came to power in 2021 was trying to diminish China’s global influence and strengthen Transatlantic partnership by      restricting Europe’s economic relations with China. Russian invasion of Ukraine gave a reason for creating a US-led coalition for constraining China’s expansion in Europe under the slogan of confronting authoritarian regimes that threaten democracy. On July 13 2023, the Foreign subsidies regulation was put into action. The activity of Chinese state-owned corporation (and under Xi Jinping all significant corporation became state-owned) was restricted, they were forbidden to obtain control over European ports. The Greek port Piraeus, which is operated and majority-owned by Chinese COSCO remains the only exception. Though, the corporation has shares in several other European ports, it cannot increase them.

However, after the election of the incumbent US president Donald Trump, the situation has slightly changed. The current US administration does not regard the EU as an essential all. Therefore, it has nothing against some strengthening of economic ties between the EU and China. Besides, the US has nothing to fear in that sense anymore. The EU has started to be afraid of Chinese economic development, because Chinese industrial export grows mostly at the expense of European. Anyway, Montenegro got an opportunity to use Chinese technologies for increasing its transit potential. Now Chinese credit cannot be used for that, Montenegro is to pay some expenses from its own budget and provided with European grants. Highway Matesevo – Andrijevica,  like China-Pakistan Friendship Tunnels, does not cover a long distance. And it  plays the same function. It changes pattern of development of the country, where mountains hindered construction of the trade routes. It can bring new economic prospects to Montenegro, which is the third most mountainous country in the world, after Bhutan and Nepal. Of course, if the EU will not refuse to fight for its economic security.

Dimitry GALKIN