German Gref, the CEO and chairman of the executive board of the largest Russian bank Sberbank,  stated at the annual general meeting of shareholders on June 30, that the main issue that concerns all Russians without exception is the immediate end of military operations. He added a good joke. The best way to avoid anxiety in the current circumstances, – he said, – is to stop thinking about the future. Because trying to make a forecast or develop a strategy, a person with an analytical mindset can only get into depression.

Gref can afford to make public jokes. He worked with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg, where he was an important municipal official in charge of state property. He won the respect of Putin, then the deputy mayor of the city, as an economic expert. Though, Gref governs Sberbank as his own property, it is still the main state owned bank. And there are a lot of people, who would be glad to replace him, which can be easily done, if Putin feels it necessary. Nevertheless, Gref is not afraid to call for the rapid termination of hostilities at the event, which always has a good media coverage. There is only one explanation of such bravery. Gref expresses the opinion widespread in the elite circles, even among those who is close to Putin.

However, the president himself supports the opposite views. Speaking at the congress of the ruling party “United Russia” on June 28, Putin stressed that “the Kyiv regime is retreating along the entire line of contact”. On the same day, Putin in his interview with the state television declared that Russian forces will keep on fighting until they accomplish their main task “the final liberation of Donbass and Novorossiya”.

It is something new. Novorossiya, as a historical region, includes two Ukrainian largest seaside cities, – Odesa and Mykolaiv, which were never officially demanded by the Russian government previously. Besides, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which were claimed by Russia, are still controlled by Ukraine. There is no doubt that Putin still believes that he can capture the whole Donbas and in theory he has enough resources to accomplish it in seven or eight months. But it is hard to imagine that he can seriously contemplate besieging and destroying Odesa, a big and densely populated city. It seems that he just wanted to say that he is going to fight as long as he finds it necessary.

Russian political system is completely different from those that exist throughout Europe and resembles models widespread in Africa. There are no stable political institutions in Russia. The government, the parliament and leading political parties are just platforms for communication between the supreme power and different groups of elite, which try to influence the course of the state, but never openly oppose important decisions taken by the leader.

In such a system, one of the main obligations of the state is preventing all spontaneous actions, caused by social discontent. Because the mass social groups have no political representations, public opinion can gain influence state decisions only, if part of the elite will use it as a tool for changing state policy. In order to prolong the war in accordance with his wishes, Putin just has to deprive all the elite groups of the opportunity to utilize anti-war sentiments that are gaining popularity in the Russian society.

The top of the electoral list of the “United Russia” announced at the congress opened with Putin’s speech can be regarded as an indication that the Russian president is going to prevent all attempts to influence his decision to go on with the war. First of all, it is important that Putin rejected the advises to postpone the elections set for September 18 on the grounds of security, because Ukrainian air attacks can scare off the voters. The general outcome of parliamentary elections in contemporary Russia can be foreseen right now. But if the loyal supporters of the ruling party, annoyed and disturbed by Ukrainian air attacks, decide to abstain from voting, local authorities will face difficulties in achieving desired results. Putin showed that he is confident in his popularity and believes that his endorsement of the “United Russia” will overcome all doubts.

Chairman of the “United Russia” Dmitry Medvedev did not manage to get into the top of the electoral list, though he was reported to make efforts to achieve it. It means that he is not supposed to become the chairman of the next Duma (the lower chamber of the Russian parliament) and once more become a player with real political influence. It may be a blow to Medvedev, but the main target of this combination seems to be Sergey Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow. Now, he is the leading political figure in the top of electoral list of the ruling party, though it is officially headed by foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. The trick is that the mayor of the city with strong anti-war sentiments became surrounded with the strong supporters of the war and will be obliged to imitate their position during the campaign. It will inevitably undermine Sobyanin’s popularity in Moscow, which has been bothering the presidential administration for quite a long time. But even more important it will make him suppress the expression of anti-war views and declare that all the inhabitants of Moscow support the President’s intention to fight until victory.

The joke appeared in the Russian capital after recent Ukrainian air-attacks: Moscow will ignore all provocations and will not allow to engage it in the war between Russia and Ukraine. It seems that Moscow will not be able to avoid an involvement, and anti-war sentiments in the capital will remain politically insignificant. It will be impossible to use them to compel the president to stop the hostilities, even if there is an elite group determined to achieve it.

But it remains unclear what Putin wants to achieve himself. He suddenly acknowledged on June 28, that no agreements were concluded during his meeting with the US president Donald Trump in Anchorage in August 2025. A few days before this statement, Lavrov declared directly opposite, complaining that the US administration does not want to carry out agreements reached by two presidents.

Putin seems to realize that Trump does not intend to give him the whole Donbas providing an opportunity to end the war looking as a winner. However, Putin cannot comprehend why Trump has changed his approach to Russia.

There is no sense to explain it by European influence on Trump or Trump’s exaggeration of the impact of Ukraine’s air-attacks on Russian economy. There is hardly a person in the world, whose opinion Trump will take into consideration if it contradicts his own beliefs. And Trump can exaggerate his role in history, but not the achievements of other political leaders.

Trump just does not need Russia any more, because his strategy has changed. He does not intend to increase pressure on China any more. He wants to control the energy supply of Europe and make concessions to China at the expense of the EU, gaining an access to Chinese to market in exchange. The US will also try to decrease its dependence on import of metals produced in China, but the direct confrontation will be avoided. Of course, China is destined to remain the only strategic rival of the US, but the main current goal of the US administration seems to be preventing the EU from obtaining a strategic autonomy. When Trump entered the session on economic security at the G7 summit with the phrase “I am the boss”, he was not joking. But the EU in its turn can hinder the US policy by enhancing cooperation with China. And Washington will be compelled to consent to it, at least to some extent.

There is no place for Russia in this scheme, which allows main global players, – the US and China, – to postpone the confrontation. Trump still can use Russia for getting advantages against both the EU and China, but in that case he needs Russia to be weak and dependent. And Ukraine’s air-strikes help to achieve that.

The Ukrainian attacks have been concentrated on oil-refineries and high-tech military production. The air-strikes are designed and organized by the American AI system Palantir. So the Pentagon can influence the selection targets. By the way, Putin still refuses to recognize the American role in the attacks and blame for them exclusively Europe (explosive parts for Ukrainian drones are supplied by Norway).

The choice of targets indicates that they are not aimed at rapid disabling of Russian forces. Neither refineries, nor the high-tech manufacturing are related directly to the main Russian advantages on the battlefield, – superiority in artillery rounds and air-bombs. When Putin says that Ukraine’s strikes cannot stop the Russian offensive in Donbas, he is not lying. But these attacks are destroying industrial equipment, which cannot be acquired by Russia without breaching American sanctions. To replace such an amount in short time seems to be completely impossible. Either if truce is established, or if the war is continued, the Kremlin is going to become completely dependent on the good will of Washington.

The change of American approach to policy towards Russia and China has already influenced the behavior of Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, who started to demonstrate that he should be regarded not as a Russian satellite, but as an independent player. On June 16, he expressed regret for being too harsh in his statements about Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky and stressed that Belarus does not want a war with Ukraine. On June 19, Zelensky demanded to switch off Russian equipment, located in Belarus, which helps to carry out air-attacks on Ukraine. Minsk gave no response, but on June 24, Zelensky announced that the equipment stopped functioning. On June 25, Lukashenko told the Russian ambassador in Minsk that his attempts to engage Belarus into the war with Ukraine are in vain, because people of Belarus have no desire to fight against Ukrainians. On June 27, Lukashenko went to meet Putin in his residence on Valdai (a beautiful lake not far from Novgorod). They spent two days in negotiations and their only result was the statement that Belarus should remain neutral, increasing cooperation with Russia. After that Lukashenko went to China where he received confirmation from Chinese president Xi Jinping that Belarus is regarded by China as a close friend.

If the peace in Ukraine is established, Belarus can become an important transit country for China, and in the current situation it will not obstruct relations between Minsk and Washington. The Balkan countries, can also gain a lot from their location on the routes that can be used by China for the access to the European market. Thanks to new technologies, Montenegro can enhance its national transit potential. Its high relief ceased to be a problem for the route construction. China built three most elevated roadways in the world. The road in the Himalayas reaches 5 886 meters above the sea level. The EU cannot allow China to control the strategically important trade routes, but it can finance their construction using Chinese workforce and technologies. Opening of the road construction in Kolashin second part of highway Matesevo-Andrijevica on June 29, proves that the Balkan countries can use for their advantage the desire of the EU to obtain a strategic autonomy and Chinese economic expansion.

Utilizing the competition between China and the US over Europe can be even more profitable. Moreover, Putin will be kept out of the game. Therefore, he will become less dangerous for the stability in the Balkans. At least until he realizes, what is happening.

  Dmitry GALKIN

China’s most advanced aircraft carrier Fujian, fully commissioned only in November 2025, sailed on June 23,  through Taiwanese strait on Thursday. It is the third Chinese aircraft carrier, and the first one designed by China. And it is is considered to be more powerful than two previous Russian-designed ones.

Several hours before that, Taiwan started five-day military drills aimed at training troops to fight against a possible Chinese military attack. Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) regards Taiwan as an independent state, and not as a part of mainland China, temporarily separated due to political reasons. A few days before the drills started, DPP Chairman and Taiwanese president Lai Ching-te urged authorities of mainland China to renounce the use of force against Taiwan and start a dialogue with the island as with an equal partner. He was answered on June 24 by Zhang Han, a spokeswoman for the State council Taiwan Affairs office, who said that China will prevent DPP attempts to pursue “Taiwan independence” and will apply force to achieve, if it becomes necessary.

Great Britain, France and Germany on June 24 issued a joint statement, in which they condemned Chinese military activities in the Taiwan Strait as a threat to the stability in the region. However, the support of the leading European countries cannot compensate the unwillingness of the US administration to make commitments to defend Taiwan in case if Chine invades the island after the proclamation of independence. Moreover, the sale of American weapons to Taiwan was officially suspended after the meeting between US president Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. It was explained that the US needed air defense missiles and surface-to-air missile systems, which were to be delivered to Taiwan, for the war against Iran. Though, the war was declared to be over, the 14 billion dollars (12,3 billion euros) arms sale package still has not been approved by Trump.            Lai Ching-te on June 19 expressed hope that arms purchase will be accomplished soon, but received no answer. It seems that Washington is changing its geopolitical strategy again and now  is trying to avoid any escalation in its relations with Beijing.

The US administration seems be disappointed by the fail of its pressure campaign against China, and is going to try an opposite approach and work out a mutual compromise. In such circumstances, the protection of Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion should be regarded not as a priority, but as a “bargaining chip”, as Trump put it himself. Meanwhile, the American attitude towards Taiwanese problem was quite different not long ago.

In the “National defense strategy” published by the Department of War in 2026, it was stated that the US is going “trade and engage from a position of strength in the Indo-Pacific” and will ensure that China cannot dominate American allies. Now the US are going to pursue détente, because they wore not able to accomplish its main task, – to impose an agreement that will give the US access to Chinese market and Chinese rare earths (which is even more important). There is a conventional wisdom in Washington’s new approach to Beijing. If China’s rare-earths cannot be obtained by pressure (at least in the near future), the should be acquired through concessions.

China produces 70 percent and refines around 90 percent of the world’s rare-earths. It is a monopolist without any practical alternative. The rare-earth metals are required first of all for the production of high technology products, which has an important basic feature. The cost of raw material is insignificant comparing to the market price of a final product. China receives annually less than 3.5 billion euros from exporting rare-earth elements and magnets, and the combined value of China’s total exports of manufactured and industrial goods reaches 3.5 trillion euros. China can lose all the revenues from rare-earth exports without any economic consequences. But this export is important tool of influence that prevents any attempts to influence Chinese economic and foreign policy, because without Chinese rare-earths most of the high-tech manufacturing in the U.S. will be  disrupted and the damage inflicted on the U.S. economy will be estimated in the hundreds of billions. 

Trump started his economic conflict with China in the spring of 2025 by restricting access to the US market with high and demanding concessions in exchange for their decrease. The EU agreed on the trade deal on Trump’s conditions in the similar situation, but China restricted rare-earth metals exports in response. Within weeks, U.S. supply chains started to collapse. Ford ceased making some models due to shortage of rare-earth magnets, and even production of Tomahawk cruise missiles became threatened. The Trump administration diminished tariffs in exchange for a suspension of the Chinese rare-earth restrictions. In January 2026, Washington  eased regulations on the export of Nvidia chips to China in order to retain access to  rare-earths. Though, the concessions in the US export of the advanced products and technologies undermine the strategy of attrition, which was carried out under both the Biden and the Trump administrations and aimed at containing China’s technological development. So the US administration decided to solve the rare-earth problem by shifting its strategy towards Beijing from long-lasting confrontation to gaining control over maritime trade routes essential to China and Chinese oil-import in order achieve immediate results.  

The first step in this direction Donald Trump made, when he ordered the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January. After the Trump administration had become certain that the new regime would terminate oil-export to China, it eased sanctions on Venezuelan oil in March. But before that the U.S. and Israel launched on February 28 war against Iran. The US administration wanted to disrupt the supply of Iranian oil to China and establish control over maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, vital to Chinese oil and raw chemical imports. But Tehran derailed American plans. It managed to close of the Strait of Hormuz in the opening days of the conflict, inciting a rapid growth of oil and LNG prices. Approximately half of China’s crude oil
imports and one-third of its LNG imports transit the Strait
of Hormuz. But China proved to be prepared for the US attempts to disrupt its energy supply chains. China has built up huge strategic oil reserves and made a great progress in electrification of its transport and industry.  Of course American producers benefited greatly from high oil prices, but because the US is firmly tied to global markets, households and energy-dependent industries suffered a lot. Washington faced the threat of a domestic social discontent, decided to cease trying to win the economic conflict with China and hastened to make peace with Iran.

It can be surmised that the new strategy of the US administration will be limited to avoiding unnecessary tension in the relations with China and seeking new opportunities to obtain leverages over Chinese foreign trade and economic policy. There are no doubts, that Washington can work out methods to solve this problem. It can increase the American role in the global financial system. It can also enhance American influence in the Middle East in order to make countries that supply oil to China and control important trade routes more reliable on the US. Through implementation of the peace agreement with Iran, the US administration can obtain what it failed to get by force. Supreme leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in late February, was propped up by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and helped the IRGC to increase its foreign and domestic influence in his turn. His son Mojtaba Khamenei, whom he never regarded as his successor, will not be able to provide the IRCG with the comparable political assistance. Besides, some of the political leaders, who were in favor of expansionism, have been assassinated via targeted air strikes. So the IRGC will be concentrated on fighting for power inside the country, and not on foreign affairs. And the US collaboration with the Iranian regime will not be regarded as a threat by the Gulf countries. Moreover, both Iran and its rivals can gain profit from Trump’s desire to secure the US global energy dominance. At least Quatari government seems to expect it, as it can be concluded from its gift to President Trump. The luxury Boeing 747 plane, which is worth approximately 350 million euros arrived on June 19 to base Andrews in Maryland.. 

The main threat to the US is that it may loose its strategic allies in Southeast Asia, trying to deal with China without consideration of their interests. Vietnam seems to be particularly scared that it will be left without American support in the face of Chinese expansion. In the end of May President of Vietnam To Lam told the press that American presence in Southeast Asia is necessary to counterbalance Chinese influence.

But there is also a potential threat to the global stability that can even bring the US administration tactical advantages. It is a probable fragmentation of Europe. In the current situation, strong and united Europe can become an obstacle for the US strategy. First of all, because the euro is the main rival to the dollar, and unchallenged dollar domination of the global trade and financial system can become an effective leverage on China. The euro is the second most used currency in foreign exchange transactions. Central banks keep 20 percent of their reserves in in euros, international debt issuance in euros has surged recently, and the US will not be able to turn the dollar into a weapon against China, if there is another widespread and stable global currency.  President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde said that the digital euro project, which will inevitably reduce the dominance of the US dollar, should be regarded as “a political statement concerning the sovereignty of Europe.” But it seems to be that the EU does not know, what it is going to do with the sovereignty or how it should be protected.

First of all, there is no comprehension what are the geopolitical goals of the EU and if they are different from the European countries, which are not included in the union. Now, the European police is influenced mostly by the countries, – Britain, France and Germany, – which are trying to coordinate their efforts, but often do not take in the account the opinion of less powerful. The EU countries that have their own geopolitical ambitions do not want to comply with such practice. Poland’s foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski on June 23, urged the British government to rebuild its military and meet Nato defense spending commitments. Sikorski warned that the UK’s influence will wane, if it cannot back up its diplomacy by force. 

Sikorski’ demands establishing the European political system, in which those who want to lead will have to put more efforts than others into enhancing the common security. It such system is not created, some of the European countries will start to prioritize their mutual relations with the US over their commitments to the EU. In that case, the fragmentation of Europe will become inevitable and the competition between European nations will soon reach the level comparable to the one before World War II. 

The Balkans countries, which can be compelled to choose different sides in such circumstances, cannot ignore the probability of such development. They have to work out common strategy, which will allow them to ensure their common energy security and avoid economic conflicts, in spite of competition between the US and the EU and rivalry between European countries. And Montenegro, which is not regarded as an enemy or a threat by any country of the region, can play a leading part in the preserving stability and cooperation on the Balkans.    

Dimitry Galkin

According to statistics, released early in June, the value of EU exports of goods to the US decreased by nearly a third in the first three months of 2026, comparing with the same period of the last year. The trade deal between the US and the EU, though it is not fully implemented, has already brought results the US president Donald Trump was anticipated. The American trade deficit in goods with the EU, which exceeded 200 billion euro in 2025, is going to be several times less this year. The fall of the value goods exported by the EU to the US was combined with the growth of value of American export to the EU.

The success of Washington looks even more astonishing, considering that the US Supreme court in February banned using of trade tariffs as a tool of political pressure in accordance with the president’s choice. After that, the US president lost the opportunity to frighten other countries with high tariffs, compelling them to make concessions. However, Trump is trying to circumvent the decision of the Supreme court and keep inventing pretexts for using tariffs as means of punishment for breaking international law. Now, Trump is going to punish the use of forced labor. The US administration announced early in June punitive tariffs from 10% to 12,5% on 60 countries, including the EU, because of concerns that the forced labor is being used there.

President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola on June 10 told the “Wall Street Journal” that the EU has learned not to react emotionally on Trump’s proposal, because it can damage to trade relations with the US, which are extremely important for the EU. Avoiding an open dispute with the US still remains necessary for the economic and political stability of the EU. And it should be regarded as the sign of strategic weakness of the EU. The conflict between the EU and the US seems to be inevitable. And mutual economic pressure will be the main tool of struggle.

The weaponization of  the economy (first of all control over supply chains and global trade) was predicted by American political scientists Edward Luttwak, who coined a term “geoeconomics” to describe a competition for the global dominance in the post-cold war era. According to his famous saying, a grammar of commerce will become the logic of global conflicts. In early 1990s Luttwak wrote that the US and the EU, which had been just created, are destined to be engaged in a conflict driven by their structural differences. Both sides were trying to restrain contradictions as long as it was possible. But the US cannot maintain the global dominance anymore and treat the EU as an equal partner, whose interests should be respected.

Trump’s ambitions are not the main factor of the disagreements between the EU and the US. Their clashing interests provided conditions for the presidency of a person with such views and approaches.

And a threat for economic development and strategic autonomy of the EU is going to increase, because the Kremlin, as Saint-Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) has shown, is yearning for the alliance with Washington and strives to weaken Europe.

Russian president Vladimir Putin in his remarks at the SPIEF plenary session on June 5, thanked Donald Trump for his role of a mediator and for the pressure he is putting on the Ukrainian government. Putin also stated that there would have been no war or the peace solution would have been soon found, if the victory on president elections in 2020 had not be stolen from Trump and he was cheated from power.

The same message was repeated by the CEO of the Russian direct investment Fund Kirill Dmitirev who was trusted by Putin to keep connection with the US administration. During the panel discussion, where he was the main speaker, Dmitriev managed to develop further Putin’s thought. He expressed confidence that Trump would be able to end the crisis in the relations between the US and Russia, which was started by Biden. Thanks to the incumbent American president, the partnership between the two countries will be restored, because he is able to overcome prejudices and resume the dialogue.

Everything related to the US was in great demand at the SPIEF. Russian media followed Candace Owens, a conservative political observer, who used to be a Trump supporter, but turned away both from him and entire MAGA movement, because of the war with Iran. Owens was deeply impressed by the attention she received, and stated that she was going to come to Russia regularly with her husband and children, because the people she met, were having the same views as her.

Phil Richards, an American citizen who is hitchhiking across Europe and happened to arrive in Saint- Petersburg was falsely identified as a businessman, got invitation to the SPIEF. He was introduced to journalists and asked for comments. One of the Russian TV channels wanted to make an interview with him, but he explained that he has never been involved in investments, and has not had a permanent employment for the last ten years.

Aide of the Russian president on the foreign policy Yuri Ushakov stated that there would be an official American delegation on the SPIEF. His statement was countered by Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of state, who made it clear that Washington did not intend to send his representatives. However, Chairperson of the US Commission of fine arts Rodney Mims Cook, an architect, who loves Saint-Petersburg, attended the event. Vladimir Putin asked him to say a few words at the plenary session, just to receive greetings from Donald Trump in public.

At the same time, the EU was depicted as an enemy of Russia, which broke political connections and  reduced trade-relations, because of the inability to overcome its own bias and hatred (as Putin explained the EU approach to Russia). Soon after the SPIEF opening, Volodymir Zelensky published a letter to the Russian president, which was proposing ceasefire. However, it was written written with obvious sarcasm and released after the Ukrainian air-attack on Saint-Petersburg. Therefore, it seems that its main purpose was to motivate Vladimir Putin for further continuation of the war, in spite of growing economic hardships. Vladimir Putin stated that he regards this letter as a sign of unwillingness to start peace negotiations and called on the Russian army to keep on fighting.

It seems that Putin still cannot get red of illusions and keeps considering Russian economy and military might to be much stronger than they are in reality. But he certainly realizes that Russia will not be able to achieve final victory over Ukraine until it can rely on military and financial assistance from the EU. Even after the whole Donbas is captured by Russia, Ukraine will have no need to surrender, if the European support is provided. In such circumstances, the Kremlin can achieve military success, only if the EU is facing severe threats, and wants to eliminate them, even if demands leaving Ukraine to its fate. The growing disagreements between the US and the EU are giving hope to the Kremlin that the current American administration may back up the efforts aimed at destabilization of Europe.

But in order to implement strategy aimed at weakening the EU and acquiring the US assistance in accomplishing this goal, the Kremlin should first of all chose the European region, that can be important for the US strategy of weakening the EU economy and establishing control over the EU hydrocarbon supply. There are only two such regions, where Russia can create real problems for the EU, the Baltics and the Balkans. And the latter looks more convenient for the activity designed to undermine the EU. First, there are Balkan countries that are not the EU-members, which create opportunities for using political forces of these counties for starting the regional destabilization. Second, the trade routs in the Balkans, which are important for the EU, are controlled by the countries, where anti-European sentiment can be enhanced with the help of external support.

Former president of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik has demonstrated how an experienced politician, who wants at any cost to stay in power, can use for his own benefit the American desire to succeed in a geoeconomic rivalry with the EU and Russian intention to undermine it. Dodik managed to prove his usefulness to the US administration and with the Russian support will be able  to propagate anti-European sentiments in other countries of the region.

Dodik’s position influenced the decision of the Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), which passed legislation approving pipeline linked with Croatia, through which American LNG will be supplied to the countries of the region. This project is being carried out by a company owned by  Trump’s associates. Furthermore, replacing Russian and Qatari gas in Europe with American one is a strategic goal of the current US administration. Dodik’s service has not gone unnoticed, as evidenced by the resignation in early June of High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina Christian Schmidt, a personal enemy of Dodik. The EU warned that approving the pipeline project could threaten the  BiH’s EU accession. But it did not have any visible impact.

But anti-American protests in the non-EU Balkan countries can also became dangerous for the EU, because of their extremely fragile political stability. The American presence and Russian activity in the region will be increasing, and they will have a strong impact on political situation. So the non-EU countries will face the danger of a permanent political crisis. Albanian prime-minister Edi Rama backed the project of Jared Kusher, who is the son-in-law of Donald Trump. Of course, Rama did not expect that it would trigger mass protests that would threaten his rule. But if Albania becomes destabilized, the EU would feel the repercussions.

If all the Balkan countries are not included in the EU, such situations will emerge repeatedly. And politicians supported by the EU rivals will be prospering and multiplying. It should be taken into consideration that in a few years China can be compelled to become a global player, which will inevitably launch a geoeconomic confrontation between China and the EU, in addition to Chinese and European rivalry with the US. And the EU will not have a chance for success, if some of the Balkans is left outside its borders.

Dmitry GALKIN